Dienstag, 18. Juni 2024

16:45 - 18:15

Vortrag von Reinhold STEINACKER

(emeriti Prof. University of Vienna)


"Should we expect a new maximum temperature world record in the near future?"

In accordance to record high global mean temperatures new local maximum temperature records have been observed in many places worldwide over the last few years. The question arises, what is the highest maximum temperature on earth to be expected in the near future due to global warming? The investigation focuses on the temperature time series of Death Valley, California, the present world record holder of maximum temperature. A critical review is given on the maximum temperature world record of 134 °F, set on July 10, 1913. Different evaluations like comparison with neighbor stations, comparison with 20th century re-analyses and measures of dispersion are carried out. They all show that this record is highly questionable. A new low-pass filter technique of time series is being used to determine the long term climatological temperature trend between 1911 and 2023 in Death Valley in the frame of global change, which is quite impressive. Finally the probabilities of the occurrence of certain temperature thresholds in the near future are derived by utilizing a general extreme value distribution. It is shown that the probability of a new temperature world record of 135 °F or more in the next few years, which would make the present - albeit questionable - record obsolete, is still very low, despite global warming.


Vortrag im Rahmen des Meteorologisch-Geophysikalischen Kolloquiums.


To the online talk click here: univienna.zoom.us/j/66942796112

Institut für Meteorologie und Geophysik
Josef-Holaubek-Platz 2, UZA 2, 1090 Wien
16:45 - 18:15

Naturgefahren, Verwundbarkeit und Katastrophen:

Interdisziplinäre Perspektiven

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