(ISTA)

"Intensification of tropical daily precipitation extremes from more organized convection"

Tropical precipitation extremes and their changes with surface warming are investigated using global storm resolving simulations and high-resolution observations. The simulations demonstrate that the mesoscale organization of convection, a process that cannot be physically represented by conventional global climate models, is important for the variations of tropical daily accumulated precipitation extremes. In both the simulations and observations, daily precipitation extremes increase in a more organized state, in association with larger, but less frequent, storms. Repeating the simulations for a warmer climate results in a robust increase in monthly-mean daily precipitation extremes. Higher precipitation percentiles have a greater sensitivity to convective organization, which is predicted to increase with warming. Without changes in organization, the strongest daily precipitation extremes over the tropical oceans increase at a rate close to Clausius-Clapeyron (CC) scaling. Thus, in a future warmer state with increased organization, the strongest daily precipitation extremes over oceans increase at a faster rate than CC scaling.

Vortrag im Rahmen des Meteorologisch-Geophysikalischen Kolloquiums.

To the online talk click here: univienna.zoom.us/j/66942796112

(University of Chicago)

"Earth's atmospheric circulation and its energy transport"

Abstract will follow.

Vortrag im Rahmen des Meteorologisch-Geophysikalischen Kolloquiums.

To the online talk click here: univienna.zoom.us/j/66942796112

(Geosphere Austria)

"Phenology / Citizens Science"

Abstract will follow.

Vortrag im Rahmen des Meteorologisch-Geophysikalischen Kolloquiums.

To the online talk click here: univienna.zoom.us/j/66942796112

(emeriti Prof. University of Vienna)

"Should we expect a new maximum temperature world record in the near future?"

In accordance to record high global mean temperatures new local maximum temperature records have been observed in many places worldwide over the last few years. The question arises, what is the highest maximum temperature on earth to be expected in the near future due to global warming? The investigation focuses on the temperature time series of Death Valley, California, the present world record holder of maximum temperature. A critical review is given on the maximum temperature world record of 134 °F, set on July 10, 1913. Different evaluations like comparison with neighbor stations, comparison with 20th century re-analyses and measures of dispersion are carried out. They all show that this record is highly questionable. A new low-pass filter technique of time series is being used to determine the long term climatological temperature trend between 1911 and 2023 in Death Valley in the frame of global change, which is quite impressive. Finally the probabilities of the occurrence of certain temperature thresholds in the near future are derived by utilizing a general extreme value distribution. It is shown that the probability of a new temperature world record of 135 °F or more in the next few years, which would make the present - albeit questionable - record obsolete, is still very low, despite global warming.

Vortrag im Rahmen des Meteorologisch-Geophysikalischen Kolloquiums.

To the online talk click here: univienna.zoom.us/j/66942796112